Over the last couple of posts we have been looking at the status of various power generation technologies in Africa, their current status of deployment, cost competitiveness and long term potential to contribute to powering the continent.
In this post and in the next couple of posts, we assess the counter-factual – that is the status quo means for generating electricity, particularly in rural off-grid locations.
Besides firewood, one of the commonest sources of energy or power is small scale diesel powered generators. By assessing the equivalent cost of generating using diesel on a country by country basis we can compare with the costs of most of the renewable technologies assessed.
This approach is not novel (see for instance Szabo et al, Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension, Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 034002 (9pp)).
The Figure below shows retail diesel prices in Africa, as of November 2012, in UScents/litre as reported by GIZ, the German Agency for International Cooperation.
Source: International Fuel Prices, 2012/13, GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation), 8th Edition, see
As highlighted by the GIZ report, most North African (and oil producers) have historically tended to subsidize fuel prices. However, across the continent, most countries do not subsidize diesel prices. I have converted these prices to a levelised cost equivalent for diesel generation - by country as shown below.
In this chart, we compare the equivalent cost of power generation using retail-priced diesel against solar PV and wind as described in previous posts.
Conclusions: Across the continent both solar and wind are currently generally cost competitive against diesel powered generation (assuming delivered diesel prices). In fact in most cases, the case for renewables is overwhelming.
In future posts we'll consider some of the barriers as to why we are not seeing a significant uptake despite the obvious economic case and the regulatory and policy recommendations to overcome those barriers.
In this post and in the next couple of posts, we assess the counter-factual – that is the status quo means for generating electricity, particularly in rural off-grid locations.
Besides firewood, one of the commonest sources of energy or power is small scale diesel powered generators. By assessing the equivalent cost of generating using diesel on a country by country basis we can compare with the costs of most of the renewable technologies assessed.
This approach is not novel (see for instance Szabo et al, Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension, Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 034002 (9pp)).
The Figure below shows retail diesel prices in Africa, as of November 2012, in UScents/litre as reported by GIZ, the German Agency for International Cooperation.
Retail diesel prices in Africa, as of November 2012, UScents/litre – GIZ International Fuel Prices, 8th Edition
Source: International Fuel Prices, 2012/13, GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation), 8th Edition, see
As highlighted by the GIZ report, most North African (and oil producers) have historically tended to subsidize fuel prices. However, across the continent, most countries do not subsidize diesel prices. I have converted these prices to a levelised cost equivalent for diesel generation - by country as shown below.
Estimated cost of diesel power generation in Africa, $/MWh
In this chart, we compare the equivalent cost of power generation using retail-priced diesel against solar PV and wind as described in previous posts.
Conclusions: Across the continent both solar and wind are currently generally cost competitive against diesel powered generation (assuming delivered diesel prices). In fact in most cases, the case for renewables is overwhelming.
In future posts we'll consider some of the barriers as to why we are not seeing a significant uptake despite the obvious economic case and the regulatory and policy recommendations to overcome those barriers.
